MyDD :: Obama's Game Plan

Obama's Game Plan

by JoeCoaster, Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 11:22:30 AM EST

Obama's campaign has had a long term strategy from the start and in this article Obama Presidency a 'Stretch' for Voters

Obama clues us into what it is...

''I think it's fair that I've got to earn the confidence of the electorate,'' Obama told AP. ''What we've tried to do over the course of the last six months is make the case for change, and the American people are desperately hungry for change. The next four or five or six months will involve me making the case that not only am I the most effective change agent but I'm also equipped with the experience and judgment to be the next commander in chief.''

It was always noted by people that visited Obama's campaign headquarters or talked to his strategist that no one seemed worried about his second place status. Now it is clear why. Obama had not really started selling himself yet. He has been focused on making "Change" the primary theme of the race.

Now he will be focusing on selling himself. Maybe that was the reason for limiting the debates. Obama is starting a push to move the poll numbers now. Lets see how he does.

Tags: obama (all tags)

Permalink :: 22 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Obama's Game Plan (none / 0)

Agreed, it will be interesting to watch...there is still a great deal of time remaining.

by chicagogene on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 11:25:20 AM EST

Agreed... (none / 0)

I believe that the Obama campaign officially started with the win in the debate on Sunday.

He now has four months to move into first place and it will likely take that long. The perfect timing to surge to victory in Iowa, NH, and SC...

What's the Point?

by Vermonter on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 12:44:11 PM EST

Re: Agreed... (none / 0)

He has the support to do it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUvdQZQ1A O4

College kids rallying at 2 AM for the Iowa debate.

Of course literally hundreds of college kids came out to see him leave the debate, while chanting the entire time.

Who said college kids won't come out in vote like usual?

by JeremiahTheMessiah on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 12:47:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Game Plan (none / 0)

The reality is that if you survive August, you survive the year; Obama can certainly make things more competitive, however, voters clearly want change AND experience; Hillary is more competitive with him on change than he is with her on experience; this gives her an edge and he can talk all about how he wants to change things, but clearly, he is not owning that issue; that is according to the recent CBS/NYT poll.

by American1989 on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 01:08:18 PM EST

Fortunately... (none / 0)

it's August. Perhaps Hillary is peaking too soon. It's hard to see how her poll numbers could go much higher, anyway.

by rashomon on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 01:15:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Fortunately... (none / 0)

The key is state polls. Clinton has made great strides in Iowa, seems to be doing well in New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada, and Michigan. I don't think she has "peaked." That is what has been said every month for 3 months now. She seems to continue to build:

Look at national and state polls on http://pollster.com/ and you will not find a single state in which Clinton appears to have peaked. She has upwards movement in every one of the states shown. It rather looks like Obama may have peaked nationally and in several states, though.

Same seems true for Iowa, Florida, other states.

by georgep on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 01:56:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Fortunately... (none / 0)

The man has a warchest. Growing considerably faster than Clinton's. Trust me. He hasn't peaked yet.

by JeremiahTheMessiah on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 01:57:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

More pro-Clinton nonsense... (3.00 / 1)

Let's be honest here, George. For once. You and I are both biased--you for Clinton and me for Obama--but frankly I don't think your graph tells the whole truth. Look at Pollster's chart for the 2004 primaries:

At this point in 2003, the only candidate whose national numbers showed "upward movement" was Howard Dean. We all know what happened to him. Kerry looked like he was declining around this time, which suggests that things are looking fine for both Edwards and Obama right now. If either one of them can win Iowa, the election will become his to lose. And both of them are within striking distance. Clinton is doing a lot worse in Iowa than she is nationally, which shows that once people start campaigning outside the early states "your girl" will be much more vulnerable than Clinton supporters would have us believe.

As Jeremiah pointed out, Obama is also sitting on a hell of a lot of money to use for ad buys later in the cycle. No doubt he's gonna do some serious damage come December and January. Furthermore, your chart shows Clinton's numbers haven't changed much at all in two years. Why should anyone believe she'll ever get up past 40%?

by HatchInBrooklyn on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 04:41:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More pro-Clinton nonsense... (none / 0)

Notice on that chart from 2004 that there is an absence of nice steady pretty colored lines in the 35% to 40% range.

by hwc on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 05:59:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

due undoubtedly from the lack of a candidate... (3.00 / 1)

with hillary's name recognition...

"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama

by bored now on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 06:41:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Game Plan (none / 0)

Obama's early strategy was to make "Change" the dominate issue in the race. From now on he will focus on "owning" the change issue.

I don't know if he expected to be so far behind on the experience question. It looks like he will be trying to minimize experience as a issue by tying it to "judgement".

by JoeCoaster on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 01:25:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Game Plan (none / 0)

He has not made the case for "change." If this goes in stages, he needs to spend much more time on this theme, as it has not taken hold at all. Right now the country thinks of Clinton as the "change" candidate.

by georgep on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 01:57:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

huh??? (none / 0)

i don't know where the magical kingdom is that returns that conclusion. in america (that place where the rest of us live), obama is seen as the candidate of change [PDF] by 61%, compared to 43% for hillary. voters are clamoring for change, with 63% of the electorate preferring new ideas to the traditional approaches that hillary represents. moreover, the desire for change is so strong amongst the electorate that it ends up in a statistical tie with experience as a determining factor (41% to 44%).

things must be more sedate in hillaryland...

"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama

by bored now on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 02:45:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: huh??? (none / 0)

I know that cherry picking polls is what worshippers of Obamaland like to do best, but that does not change the fact that it is mere cherry picking.

Todd Beeton had a frontpage post recently in which he outlined that recent polls are showing Clinton as BOTH the experience AND the change candidate. Try not to cherry pick so much, and you will see something different from the Obamaland side of the track, something that the rest of the country has seen.

BTW, I still chuckle about the shameless cherrypicking Axelrod engaged in when he claimed on the tube that they don't look at national polls because state polls show Obama LEADING in the critical states. If you speak to him, don't let him in on the reality that Obama actually does not lead in a single state. Would not want to disrupt his daydreaming of sugarpops and candycanes this close to Christmas, eh? :-)

by georgep on Wed Aug 22, 2007 at 10:03:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

and here i just pick the first ones on the polling (none / 0)

report. silly me...

"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama

by bored now on Wed Aug 29, 2007 at 11:01:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Are we talking (none / 0)

about the same person? I don't think we are.

Or did you forget the </snark> tag at the end...that must be it.

by JoeCoaster on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 04:30:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Game Plan (none / 0)

It is going to be tough to own "change" running against the first female frontrunner in the 230 year history of the country.

Both Clinton and Obama represent fundamental change in 230 years of white male Presidents...are more fundamental change that inconsequential issues like policy differences or political process in Washington.

by hwc on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 06:02:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

that'd be a decent argument if her last name... (3.00 / 1)

wasn't clinton...

"This is the time for resolve and steady leadership" -- Barack Obama

by bored now on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 06:41:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Game Plan (none / 0)

by rashomon on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 01:15:45 PM EST

Hope Springs Eternal (none / 0)

I hope you're right. I've seen Obama up close and was very impressed with his rhetoric and demeanor. He's relaxed, confident and has good rapport with the crowd. Because of this, I've been very concerned by the fact that his poll numbers in the early states have been largely static all summer. If people that see him up close in these famously populous campaign stops are so impressed, why hasn't it been reflected in the polls? The Obama campaign in the last couple weeks does seem like it is 'shifting gears'. Let's hope that really is the case.

by Mr Grohl on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 01:23:38 PM EST

Re: Hope Springs Eternal (none / 0)

Because Obama has failed to cross the commander-in-chief threshold.

This should not be surprising. It is virtually impossible for a candidate two years removed from the statehouse to cross that threshold. Certainly no candidate in at least 100 years as done so with such negligible big league experience.

by hwc on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 06:04:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Game Plan (none / 0)

I don't think it's been a strategy all along from the beginning, but I do think he now has one where before I think he was basically just feeling his way through- but he seems to have really thought this out and it impresses me that he knows what is needed and can admit it's already near September and the time window is closing fast. He has a sense of "reality" about him now that before I didn't think he really grasped how to run a campaign, he's been a quick learner and I am liking him again now.

by reasonwarrior on Tue Aug 21, 2007 at 07:30:02 PM EST

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